128% yearly surge as Justice Secretary claims improvements

England and Wales saw 103 prisoners freed by error since April, a 128% annual rise, with two still at large. Justice Secretary Lammy's downward trend claim ignores climbing numbers and public safety gaps.

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Twelve prisoners released in error from prisons in England and Wales last month alone.

Justice Secretary David Lammy calls this a “downward trend” after system improvements.

The numbers contradict him: 91 wrongful releases from April to October, now 103 total.

Lammy disclosed the 91 figure to Parliament in mid-November.

Those 12 occurred since then.

Two remain at large.

Annual data exposes deeper failure.

The justice system recorded 262 erroneous releases in the year to March 2025.

That marks a 128% increase from the prior year.

Officials processed 57,000 releases total.

The error rate climbed despite volume stability.

High-profile cases amplify risks.

Brahim Kaddour-Cherif, an Algerian sex offender, walked free from HMP Wandsworth.

Police recaptured him last week.

Hadush Kebatu, convicted of sexually assaulting a 14-year-old girl and another woman, exited HMP Chelmsford by mistake.

Billy Smith, a fraudster, self-surrendered.

These incidents preceded new security checks introduced in September.

Lammy learned of Kaddour-Cherif’s release on Wednesday but withheld details at Prime Minister’s Questions.

He refused to confirm if more asylum seekers escaped custody.

Police handle the two fugitives operationally.

Lammy assures neither is a violent or sexual offender.

Such guarantees ring hollow amid repeated sex offender releases.

Prison overcrowding drives the chaos.

Backlogs stretch court cases to 2030, as Lammy’s own reforms target jury trials to cut costs.

Administrative errors compound containment failures.

HMP Wandsworth and Chelmsford exemplify systemic rot.

Both facilities freed dangerous migrants convicted post-illegal entry.

Public safety bears the cost.

Erroneous releases expose citizens to untracked offenders.

Recapture succeeds sometimes, but two roam free.

The 128% surge signals institutional breakdown, not isolated slips.

Governments rotate, problems persist.

Conservatives oversaw prior rises; Labour inherits without remedy.

Lammy’s “improvements” yielded 12 errors in one month—above the prior average of 13 monthly.

Fiscal pressures accelerate decay.

Ministry budgets prioritize payouts over safeguards.

Officials tout trends while raw numbers climb.

Accountability evaporates.

No resignations follow 262 annual errors.

Lammy faces criticism but retains post.

Parliament receives data post-facto.

Trends mask acceleration.

This is criminal justice in freefall: doors unlock for offenders, officials count downward, citizens face unchecked risks.

England and Wales document Britain’s custodial collapse—one wrongful release at a time.

Commentary based on Twelve more prisoners in England and Wales released in error in last month by Jamie Grierson on the Guardian.

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